In Jacobin, Luke Savage writes, "2024 Is Beginning To Feel A Lot Like 2016."
"[I]t's difficult to understate how shaky Joe Biden’s reelection campaign really looks... Were it not for a global pandemic, there is good reason to believe that
Trump would have beaten Biden [in 2020] and secured a second term. And even with a
COVID handicap, the latter’s electoral college victory came down to no
more than about forty-four thousand votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. If he is indeed the Democratic
candidate for president in 2024, the available evidence suggests that
Biden will be running the same playbook with fewer advantages and less
popularity."
Nothing new there, of course. Biden's presidency has been a major bust. Everyone knows it, even if many partisans are still loath to say it. To anyone who can follow data, has any more-than-rudimentary understanding of politics and who doesn't want a return of rule by Trump's Republican party, a Biden reelection effort seems a
very bad idea. Biden is spectacularly unpopular, and that dislike doesn't just threaten to take down his own reelection campaign but will impact every Democratic candidate at every level in the 2024 general election.
Last Summer, one of the dimmer Clintonites over on Twitter wrote,
"And the people who kept telling us [Joe Biden] had no chance are now telling us he needs to step aside. Sigh."
My
initial response to this became an ongoing Twitter thread cataloging some
rather pertinent polling on this, one that has continued to the present. In February, that thread up to that point was slightly expanded into an appendix to
an article on the baleful influence of Clintonite-right dominance of the Democratic party and its elected officials. I'm reproducing and further expanding it here:
12 July, 2022 - The people saying Biden needs to step aside include the
overwhelming majority of Democrats; only 26% of Democrats say they want their party to renominate Biden in 2024.
Huge
majorities of Dems in every age group don't want their party to
renominate Biden, except in the 65+ bracket, where a plurality agrees.
Huge majorities at every educational level, a plurality of black voters
and a majority of every other racial group don't want him back.
26 July, 2022 - Another poll, same conclusion:
"A
new CNN poll finds 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want
the party to nominate someone other than President Joe Biden in the
2024 election..."
CNN's poll offers a breakdown on why Dems don't want Biden to run again:
--24% say they want someone else because they don't think Biden can win in 2024.
--32% (the plurality) said they didn't want Biden reelected.
--25% said they prefer Biden as the 2024 nominee.
Exit-polls on the 2022 midterm elections showed that 67% of voters--of all voters--don't want Biden to run in 2024.
15 Nov., 2022 - An ABC News/Washington Post poll found that, in the words of the Hill, "just 35 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want President Biden to run for second term in 2024."
1 Dec., 2022 - An Economist/YouGov poll
of adults found that 56% didn't want Biden to run again, compared to
22% who said they did. This poll featured a
sky-high-enough-to-be-very-questionable 22% saying they're "not sure"--a regular unfortunate feature of YouGov polls.
A
slight majority of black and Hispanic Americans don't want Biden to run
again, while solid majorities of every other demographic group oppose
his seeking reelection. 39% of Dems say he should run again with a very
unlikely 29% saying they're not sure.
10 Dec., 2022 - A CNBC poll
found that a whopping 70% of adult Americans don't want Biden to run
again; only 19% said he should. Those who said Biden shouldn't run again
include 57% of Democrats and 66% of independents.
There's no breakdown on
Dem-leaning independents, which is quite problematic. Dem "leaners"--that is, those who call themselves independent but almost always vote Democratic--are a large and indispensable portion of the Dem coalition. With 66% of "independents"--no breakdown--saying they don't want Biden to run again, it means Biden's standing among Dems is even worse than the above results suggest.
14 Dec., 2022 - A CNN poll
asked registered Dems and Dem-leaning indies who they thought the party
should nominate in 2024; 40% chose Biden, while 59% said it should be
someone else.
5 Feb., 2023 - A Tale of Two News Stories -
The first, from ABC News...
"'I have heard from no one within the DNC or other power brokers within
the Democratic Party any reservation about Joe Biden,' one of the DNC
members said."
...and--simultaneously--
the second, an ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 58%
of Dems "support the idea of nominating someone other than Biden...
Just 31% said they would support Biden... Sixty-two percent of Americans
say they would be 'dissatisfied' or 'angry' if Biden were reelected."
In the same poll, 62% say Biden
has achieved little or nothing during his administration. Respondents' views of individual areas of policy yield equally dismal results.
7 Feb., 2023 - An
Associated Press/NORC poll
finds that 62% of Democrats don't want Biden to run for reelection in
2024 vs. only 37% who do. Overall, 78% of Americans don't want Biden to
run again.
The poll understates how little Dems want Biden to run
again, as those numbers segregate Dems from Dem-leaning independents, and
88% of unsorted indies don't want Biden to run again.
27 Feb., 2023 - Another new poll,
this one a Fox poll of "Democratic primary voters," only 37% of whom want to keep Biden as the nominee.
6 March, 2023 -
There appears to have been some sort of major short-circuit in the new Emerson College poll, which just found that 71% of Democrats now want Biden to "carry the party’s banner" in 2024.
"Support for Biden to run for a second term is highest among 18- to 34-year-old Democratic voters."
All of these findings are, of course, entirely impossible. Dem opposition to Biden running again has been overwhelming for months and has been strongest among young voters.
There are always outlier polls that turn up from time to time, some of them even extreme ones but this is maybe the most extreme I've ever seen. It isn't credible that every other polling org has gotten this so wrong for so long.
So what's the real story with this poll?[The problem appeared to be an overreliance on landline phones.]
23 March, 2023 -
Meanwhile, as Biden has been making high-profile lunges to the right, his approval continues to plummet. In the new Associated Press-NORC poll, it's 38%, with a fatal 61% saying they disapprove of the job he's doing as president.
30 March, 2023 - This new Monmouth University poll just found that only 25% of Dems/Dem-leaners want Biden to run again in 2024.The very high "no preference" result is a problematic feature of this poll but here are the results, for what they're worth:
Joe Biden carried New York by a whopping 23 points over Trump in 2020, but in a new Siena College poll of registered Dems in NY, only 43% said they want Biden renominated in 2024; 51% said they want someone else.
8 April, 2023 - Another one for the pile: A new CNN poll asked adults, "Do you think Joe Biden deserves to be re-elected, or not?" A very strongly-worded question; 67% said he doesn't deserve reelection.
CNN doesn't do a breakdown of Dem- and Repub-leaning independents, which, honestly, makes one wonder why they're bothering, but supermajorities of Repubs (96%) and indies (70%) say Biden doesn't deserve reelection, while 68% of Dems say he does. That strong wording at work.Some details: 57% say they disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president, with large majorities--usually supermajorities--disapproving of every one of the 6 general policy areas about which respondents were asked.
Some other eye-catching results: 54% of respondents said Biden doesn't care about people like them, 54% said he isn't "honest and trustworthy," 65% say he doesn't inspire confidence, and 67% said Biden doesn't have "the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president."
The poll asked Dems and Dem-leaners--the correct combo--"Who do you think the Democratic Party should nominate as the party's candidate for president in 2024?"
56% chose "a different candidate," with only 44% going with Biden.
22 April, 2023 - A new
Associated Press-NORC poll has found that 73% of Americans--including (again) a majority of Democrats--do not want Biden to run for reelection. AP-NORC fouls up their findings by segregating independents with no effort to break them down into Repub- and Dem-leaners.
Given that an overwhelming 86% of indies don't want another Biden run, those numbers would be much worse if Dem-leaners were included with the Dems.
Also, 56% of respondents said they either probably wouldn't (15%) or definitely wouldn't (41%) vote for Biden if he did run again.
23 April, 2023 - Another day, another poll telling the same story: An NBC News poll finds that 70% of Americans say "Joe Biden should not run for president" in 2024. Only 26% say he should run again.
That large number includes most Dems but NBC segregates Dem-leaning indies from them. 41% of registered voters said they'd probably or definitely vote Biden if he ran, with 47% saying they'd vote Repub. Only 22% of indies say they'd back Biden.
26 April, 2023 - Biden announced his reelection bid. While by any serious, objective measure, Biden has accomplished very little, he says "Let's finish the job."
14 May, 2023 - New ABC News/Washington Post poll: Only 36% of Dems and Dem-leaners want the Dems to renominate Biden for 2024, and 68% of Americans say Biden is too old to run for another term. His approval rating stands at only 36%.
That article notes that, in polling going back to Harry Truman, Biden's approval at the point is his presidency is similar to "Gerald Ford, at 40% approval in May 1975; Jimmy Carter, at 37% in May 1979; and Trump, at 39% in April 2019. None were re-elected."
25 May, 2023 - In a new Quinnipiac poll, 66% of adults say "Joe Biden is too old to effectively serve" another term, including nearly half of Democrats and supermajorities in every age-bracket and every racial category, except black Americans, who are evenly split.
Continuing, 54% of registered voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, compared to 39% favorable; 58% of adults say they disapprove of his job as president vs. 36% approve; Biden is ranked negatively in all 4 policy categories about which the pollsters asked.
And that's where the Twitter thread currently stands--nearly a year of wretched numbers for Biden. A negative public impression, hardened to diamond. A new CNN poll just asked respondents if a Biden victory in 2024 would be "a disaster for the country, a setback, a step forward, or a triumph for the country."; 66% said it would either be "a disaster" (41%) or "a setback" (26%); only 7% chose "a triumph."
After the fiasco that was the 2016 election, I collected many of my notes from that primary into an article and to pick up from where Luke Savage left the matter in Jacobin, Biden's polling here is very reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's polling from this same point in that cycle. Clinton joined that race in the 2nd week of April, 2015, her polling already showing her more disliked than liked, but Biden's negatives in the corresponding period this year were even higher than hers.[1]
One of
the least useful things corporate media have done in covering Biden's
grim fortunes is both-sides-ing the story by pointing out that Donald
Trump, the Republican front-runner, is also very
disliked. In early head-to-head polls, Biden sometimes even wins. And sometimes Trump wins. And in neither case are the margins significant.[2] Too many in and overly adhered to the Dem Establishment seem drunk on the thought that while Biden bites, Trump overbites. The notion that Trump's suckage will trump Biden's suckage is another example of pure 2016 thinking.[3]
We all know how that worked out.
None of this means Biden will definitely lose his reelection bid. It's far too soon and there's far too much to come to say that with any confidence. But Biden has always been a weak candidate, and now, diminished by age to a shell of even that, he's a weak and disliked president, which carries a lot more baggage. He spent most of covid-locked-down 2020 in his basement reading, often quite badly, from prepared cue-cards while the weight of a failed presidency did all the work of drowning Trump. He wasn't broadly disliked (he finished 2020 with a net favorable rating) and he won by default. Barely. Tightly-controlled basement-dwelling won't be an option in 2020, Biden's advanced age and cognitive decline won't be so easily swept under the rug, those net favorable days are long gone and that weight of a bad presidency--Biden's approval has been at an unbroken majority-disapprove since 8 months into his presidency--will now be on his back. Unless just trying to lose is the point, throwing such a weak president into any new race is madness. Black-hole-level shade should be directed at Biden for choosing to run again under these circumstances, ensuring the party apparatus will close ranks around him and suck all oxygen (and light) out of any effort to find a good, more electable candidate. By running again, he's only further proven he was unfit to be president in the first place.
Democratic party officialdom is barreling ahead. For all its talk of "protecting democracy" in the face of GOP attacks on it, the party isn't scheduling any Democratic primary debates--part of that "closing ranks" (and while it's true--and always noted by those seeking to brush aside concerns over this) that there isn't really much precedent for primary debates when an incumbent president is running for reelection, it's also the case that, as one of the news articles above noted, there's no precedent for an incumbent president with Biden's numbers winning reelection either. By renominating Biden, Democrats would be absolutely begging for a loss.
Meep- meep.
--j.
---
[1] The comparison isn't precise, as it compares favorability numbers for Clinton to approval numbers for Biden but the two are always closely correlated.
[2] In the 538 database for May to date, Trump defeats Biden in 15 polls and Biden defeats Trump in 14, all but two by single digits, either within or barely outside the polls' margins of error (meaning they're statistical ties or razor-thin wins). In the two, Trump defeated Biden by double digits (11%) in one Harris poll and Biden defeated Trump by double digits (15%) in one Ipsos poll. In eight more polls, Biden and Trump exactly tie, putting the "dead" in "dead evenly."
[3] This also depends on Trump actually becoming the Republican nominee, and while he's by far the most popular candidate in his party, there are many months to go and a million things that could happen in them before that's settled. Presenting it as a foregone conclusion is journalistic malpractice, a way of both burying the lede--which is about Biden, the sitting president--and of manipulating the political process--presenting Trump as if he already has the nomination while he has over half a dozen opponents and it's months before any voting even begins. Team Biden has staked its entire reelection effort on running against Trump and will be in a sorry place indeed if Trump isn't the Repub nominee.
---
UPDATES:
11 June, 2023 - In the words of USA Today, "eight in 10 Democratic primary voters say in a USA TODAY/Suffolk
University poll they would like to see a series of Democratic debates
during the 2024 campaign." Those debates Biden and the DNC are refusing to organize. Those wanting to see primary debates "includes an overwhelming 72% of those supporting President Joe Biden."
17 June, 2023 - A YouGov poll of American adult, asks, "Do you think that Joe Biden is the strongest candidate that Democrats could nominate for president in 2024?"
Only 19% say yes. Only 34% of even Dems say yes.
27 June, 2023 - An NBC News poll finds, in the words of NBC News, that "68% of all voters say they have concerns about Biden having the necessary mental and physical health to be president, including 55% who say they have 'major' concerns."
This compares to Oct. 2020, the first NBC News poll on that subject, in which 51% said they had concerns, with 38% having "major" concerns. In that earlier poll, 21% of Dems said they had moderate/major concerns about Biden’s fitness. In this one, it’s up to 43%.
11 July, 2023 - CNN reports on the average of the last 3 Quinnipiac polls shows Biden, along with (unhelpfully) Trump, have very poor favorable ratings, with 24% of respondents saying they don't have a favorable view of either.
At the same time, in an NBC News poll, 45% of registered voters said they'd be open to supporting a 3rd party candidate if Biden and Trump are the nominees next year; 45% of Dems say they'd consider it, compared to only a third of Repubs.
In the event of a Biden/Trump rematch, "a majority of Hispanic voters (58%), young voters ages 18 to 34 (57%), Democrats who backed progressive Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary (55%) and Black voters (52%)" said they'd consider a 3rd party.
29 Aug., 2023 - In an Associated Press/NORC poll, 77% of respondents said Biden is too old to effectively serve another term as president. That includes 69% of Demcrats, 89% of Republicans and 74% of independents.
7 Sept., 2023 - A CNN poll shows that 67% of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents want the party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024.
Other findings, as reported by CNN: Biden's job approval stands at only 39%; 58% say they have an unfavorable impression of Biden; only 33% describe Biden as someone they're proud to have as president; only 28% say Biden inspires confidence; only 26% say Biden "has the
stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president" (that's down by 6 points from March, "with those declines driven largely by Democrats and
independents"); 73% say they are "seriously
concerned that Biden’s age might negatively affect his current level of
physical and mental competence"; 76% say Biden's age will negatively affect "his ability to serve out
another full term if reelected."
When matched against the Republican contenders, Biden is statistically tied with Trump, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie, with every Repub except DeSantis leading him by 1-2 points (while Biden and DeSantis are dead-tied with 47% each). Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is beating Biden by 6 points--above the margin of error.
17 Sept., 2023 -
In a CBS News/YouGov poll, 72% of registered voters say they believe Joe Biden isn't "physically healthy" enough to serve another 4 years as president; 77% say he doesn't have the mental and cognitive health to serve another term. Asked if Biden would finish a 2nd term if reelected, 66% say they either think he would leave office before it was over (44%) or aren't sure he'd finish the term (22%).
Other findings: Trump is ahead of Biden by one point among likely voters in a theoretical 2024 match-up--a statistical tie; 51% of those who say they'd vote for Biden in such a contest say they'd only be voting against Trump, not in favor of Biden. Among registered voters, 64% say a Biden/Trump rematch in 2024 would make them feel "the political system is broken"; only 23% say it would make them feel "the political system is working."
24 Sept., 2023 - An NBC poll shows, "74% of registered voters say they have major concerns (59%) or moderate
concerns (15%) that Biden, at age 80, doesn’t have the necessary mental
and physical health to be president for a second term." A whopping 59% of Democratic primary voters say they want a candidate to challenge Biden for the Dem nomination. In a hypothetical Trump-vs.-Biden rematch in 2024, 58% of those who say they'd vote for Biden say they'd just be voting against Trump, while 57% of Trump voters say they'd be voting
for Trump, not against Biden.
Other findings: Biden's approval rating among registered voters is at 41% approve and--the important number--56% disapprove. This is the highest disapproval of Biden NBC News polls have yet found (though others have found it even worse). Biden is more disliked than liked among women, Latinos, independents and voters aged 18-34.
In the face of this growing mountain of data, Cenk Uygur of the Young Turks has launched a petition asking Biden to step down and not run for reelection. He's just written
an editorial in Newsweek promoting it.
2 Oct., 2023 - A
Monmouth University poll finds that 51% of voters say they will "definitely" not vote for Joe Biden in 2024, with another 6% saying "probably not." That's the lede, even if every report on this seems to have buried it. Other findings: A fat 76% say Biden is "too old to serve another term," including 55% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans; 55% of voters "strongly agree" with this. Only 32% of voters say they're "enthusiastic" about Biden becoming the Dem nominee. As has been the damnable trend of late, Monmouth throws in Trump as well, showing he also has bad numbers (though not as bad as Biden's).
7 Oct., 2023 - A
Marquette University poll offers a glimpse of the weight Biden's failed administration puts on him. Marquette asked about 8 policy areas, "Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues?"
On the big, important economic issues that always make up the upper strata of "most important issues to you" polling (and that tend to factor so heavily in voters' decisions), it's a one-sided massacre straight down the line. Only on "abortion policy"and "climate change" does Biden hold significant--though, one suspects, shaky--leads.
Marquette also asked, "How well does each of the following phrases describe Joe Biden?" Supermajorities
agree that Biden doesn't have a strong record of accomplishments as
president, doesn't understand the problems of ordinary people and is too
old to be president.
Biden's approval rating in the poll stood at only 39%.
11 Nov., 2023 - Three sets of new polls surveying swing-states show Biden losing to Trump across most of them.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll has Trump ahead of Biden in Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and, narrowly, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Biden tied with Trump in Michigan and leading Trump only in Nevada.
An Emerson College poll has Trump leading Biden in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and, narrowly, Arizona, while Biden narrowly leads in Michigan and the two are tied in Wisconsin.
A New York Times/Siena poll finds Trump leading Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Biden narrowly ahead in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, a CNN poll has nothing but more bad news for Biden. Buttressing an Emerson poll from early October, "51% of voters nationwide say there is no chance at all that they would
vote for Biden, and just 4% are not currently supporting him but say
there is a chance they will." To repeat myself, if that holds, that's Game Over.
Only 25% of respondents say "Biden has the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president"; 58% said Biden isn't "honest and trustworthy"; only 33% said Biden is "someone you are proud to have as president" (those offering the contrary view make up 57% of those 65 years of age or older and supermajorities of every other age-group). Asked if Biden is more part of the problem in dealing with the nation's issues or part of the solution, 61% chose the former; of the 19% who said both Biden and Trump were part of the problem, 46% say they'd vote for Trump, only 34% for Biden. Biden's approval rating in the poll stands at 39% and CNN notes that "Jimmy Carter was the only president with a significantly lower approval rating than Biden" at this point in is presidency--only 7% lower. Carter went on to lose 44 states in 1980.
In an unsurprising finding, "72% of all Americans say things in the country today are going badly." Sounds like an opportunity that could be exploited by a reform-minded politician with his eyes on the presidency. If there was any such thing.
16 Nov., 2023 - A
Yahoo/YouGov poll finds that 54% of potential Dem primary voters say they would "like to see another Democrat enter the race to challenge Biden for the 2024 presidential nomination." Only 28% said they wouldn't.
The missing 18% there points to the usual problem with YouGov polls, the fact that they always return sky-high "don't know/unsure" responses--far higher than any other pollster and far higher than is remotely credible.
Whereas every other pollster who has asked has, over a very long period, a majority of Dems saying they'd prefer someone besides Biden be the Dem nominee, YouGov has, of late, been an outlier, showing majorities or pluralities of Dems picking Biden. The current poll shows 46% of Dems preferring Biden vs. 39% someone else, but it has a huge 15% saying "unsure." Caveat emptor.
19 Dec., 2023 - In a move that seems rife with all sorts of dire symbolism, the Biden campaign, earlier this month, rolled out Hillary Clinton--the toxic, all-time-loser herself--as
a new surrogate. Clinton immediately utilized her sole talent on Biden's behalf by prostituting Biden's potential 2nd term to huge-money donors at a huge-money fundraiser in her Georgetown home.
Four days later, as if beckoned by this news, a
Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed Biden is now trailing Trump in all 7 swing-states surveyed.
"Trump [is now] leading Biden in North Carolina by 11 points, Georgia by seven
points, Wisconsin by six points, Nevada by five points, Michigan by four
points, Arizona by three points and Pennsylvania by one point."
Four days after that, Biden's approval rating hit a new
Monmouth poll record low of 34%, with 61% disapproving. More granularly, a majority disapprove of the way Biden has handled all 5 specific policy areas polled.
That same day, the Washington Post
reported that Biden was "increasingly frustrated" by his "dismal poll numbers." He "delivered some stern words" to his people:
"His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it."
Moreover,
"For months, the president and first lady Jill Biden have told aides and
friends they are frustrated by the president's low approval rating and
the polls that show him trailing former president Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination--and in recent weeks,
they have grown upset that they are not making more progress."
Biden's presidency has been a miserable failure--his approval numbers have been at permanent majority-disapproval since only a few months after he assumed the presidency. What, exactly, did he think was going to happen if he ran for reelection? What, at this late date, are the aides he greets with these "stern words" supposed to do about this when he--the only one with the power to affect it--has refused, for 3 years to do anything about it? Is his reported exasperation here just a barometer of how profoundly out-of-touch he is? Is his cognitive decline really that severe?
Perhaps Hillary Clinton will help.
